ARR Calculator
See when you hit your ARR target at your current pace, and the pipeline, spend and cash it takes to hit it on time.
One rule runs the model
Each month you add new ARR from your pipeline and lose a share of your ARR to net churn. Every number comes from that rule.
| Number | How it is worked out | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| New customers | Qualified pipeline × win rate | Customers you add each month at your pace. |
| Net churn | Monthly churn − monthly expansion | The share of ARR you really lose each month. |
| New ARR added | New customers × ARPA × 12 | ARR your acquisition brings in each month. |
| ARR next month | ARR × (1 − net churn) + new ARR added | Churn hits the whole base, so it grows as you grow. |
| Growth ceiling | New ARR added ÷ net churn | The ARR where churn cancels what you add. |
| LTV | ARPA × gross margin ÷ net churn | Gross profit one customer brings over their life. |
| CAC | Acquisition spend ÷ new customers | What one new customer costs. |
| CAC payback | CAC ÷ (ARPA × gross margin) | Months until a customer pays back their cost. |
| Pipeline needed | Worked back from your target and deadline | The monthly pipeline that lands on the target on time. |
| Affordable spend | LTV × new customers ÷ 3 | The most you can spend a month and keep LTV:CAC at 3:1. |
Why growth slows down
Churn takes a share of your whole base. The bigger you get, the more ARR you lose each month.
The ceiling
If new ARR stays the same each month, growth slows until what you lose equals what you add. That level is your growth ceiling.
The default numbers
You add $33,000 of ARR a month and lose 5% net, so ARR stops at $660,000. A $500,000 target takes just over 12 months.
One point of churn
Cut net churn to 4% and the ceiling rises to $825,000. The same target then takes under 9 months.
What we do with the gap
The calculator shows the gap between your pace and your target. These are the three steps we take to close it.
One target for day 90
We write one target with a baseline in the first days. This math shows if it is real.
Pick the lever
More pipeline, a higher win rate, lower churn or cheaper acquisition. We test the one that moves your date most.
Your numbers every Monday
Real pipeline, win rate and churn replace the guesses, so the forecast gets truer each week.
We run this math for you before we commit to a target, then every Monday, in the Growth Strategy™.
More Growth Strategy™ tools: Channel FinderCAC Payback CalculatorICP Builder
Frequently asked questions
What is the growth ceiling?
The ARR where what you lose to churn each month equals the new ARR you add, so growth stops. It is new ARR per month divided by monthly net churn. Only more new ARR or less churn raises it.
Why does it say I never reach my target?
Your target is at or above your growth ceiling. At your pipeline, price and churn, ARR levels off before it gets there. Raise pipeline, win rate or ARPA, or bring churn down, until the ceiling is above the target.
How is the pipeline I need worked out?
It works back from your target and deadline to the new ARR you must add each month. That divided by ARPA gives customers, and divided by your win rate gives qualified pipeline. Spend needed assumes your cost per opportunity stays the same.
How much can I afford to spend on acquisition?
The limit here is a 3:1 LTV:CAC: the lifetime value of the customers you win each month, divided by three. Below it you have room to spend more. Above it, each new customer earns less than that rule of thumb.
Is what I enter saved?
No. The calculator runs in your browser and sends nothing, to us or to anyone else. Your inputs stay in the page address after the # sign, which a browser does not send to a server, so you can bookmark or share a scenario.
Let's bring in the customers, together.
As a first step, book a free 30-minute strategy call with Ovidiu.
You leave with a plan: which channel, how much, what first.